The paper mill at the edge of Témiscaming, Quebec, has been the reason the town exists for more than a century. Now it sits idle, and the town is trying to work out whether it can survive the tariffs that stopped it.

The mill's American owner, RYAM, began an "economic shutdown" for an indefinite period in early October, after trade talks between Canada and the United States broke down and President Donald Trump imposed further tariffs. Most of the mill's 360 employees are out of work, kept afloat for now by partial pay from a government tariff-relief programme.

A company town with no company running

Témiscaming was built around the mill and the forests of pine, birch, spruce and fir that feed it. The town is on the Ottawa River, across from Ontario, and the mill dominates the horizon as you cross the bridge. Property values fell almost overnight after the shutdown, and "For Sale" signs now sit in the yards of the modest middle-class homes that make up most of the town.

"If the mill goes down, it'll turn into a ghost town," Ronnie Raymond, whose family has worked at the mill for generations, told the BBC. "There'll be nothing, nothing left. There's no work for anybody, really. It's scary."

For Nadine Suley, the closure is not only a lost paycheque. "It's not just a job. It's our home," she said, describing the US tariffs as feeling like "a personal attack". She is heading out moose hunting later in the season, like much of the town, and jokes that the free meat will matter this year.

The wider tariff picture

At a national level, Canada has weathered the trade war better than many feared. The unemployment rate has stayed at around 6.5% since the tariffs began, alongside tepid but consistent growth. The damage is concentrated in industries hit by US duties of up to 50%, including steel, aluminium, automobiles, and lumber, pulp and paper.

That concentration is why Témiscaming matters beyond its size. A single mill town going dark is the kind of event that national averages hide, and it raises the question of whether the Carney government is doing enough for the sectors most exposed.

What the town wants

Mayor Alain Gauthier does not blame RYAM for the decision. He calls the US tariffs "a bomb to shut down our manufacturing in Canada" and wants Ottawa to retaliate with its own duties on board products coming into Canada from the US, which are currently tariff-free. He argues that politicians talk about an economic war but have not acted like it. "We feel we got into a war with kid's water guns to fight back," he said.

Local politicians and unions are also trying to buy the mill. The BBC reports that locals have been mobilising a coalition to buy the plant back from RYAM, hoping to repeat what happened in 1973, when workers and managers bought the plant from its then-American owner and turned it into Tembec, a Quebec-owned company. RYAM, which bought the mill in 2017, told the BBC it would not comment on a potential sale or any prospective buyers.

The support already promised

Ottawa and Ontario have not been idle. Last week, Prime Minister Mark Carney and Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced nearly C$9bn, about $6.4bn, to help the province's steel and auto sectors modernise, strengthen domestic demand and open new markets. This month, Industry Minister Mélanie Joly threatened Stelco, one of Canada's largest steelmakers, with financial penalties or a forced asset sale if it went ahead with about 500 layoffs caused by steel tariffs.

For Témiscaming, the question is whether forestry gets the same treatment. Stéphane Lefebvre, a mill employee and union leader whose father and grandfather worked there, told the BBC that forestry has taken a back seat to steel and autos. "We're hoping that lightning will hit twice," he said of the buyout effort.

What happens next

The immediate decisions are commercial and political. RYAM has to decide whether to restart, sell or keep the mill idle. The coalition needs financing and a willing seller. The federal and Quebec governments have to decide whether tariff relief and support extend to pulp and paper.

For the town, the timeline is shorter than the policy debate. Workers are drawing partial pay, property values have already fallen, and the services that depend on the mill, from the grocery store to the small hospital, are exposed to the same closure.

For readers following the trade thread, our coverage of Canada's September employment decline sets out the labour-market backdrop, and the Amazon Greenwood factory announcement is a reminder that plant decisions are announced years before they arrive. The UK trade development plan covers how another government is trying to open non-domestic markets.

The confirmed facts are narrow: a mill idle, 360 workers affected, tariffs up to 50% on the sectors named, a C$9bn provincial support package and a coalition trying to buy the plant. Whether the town gets its second lightning strike is not yet known.