President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed that Washington would stop paying Israel $4 billion a year, and that the payments would end by the close of 2026.

"Now, as far as paying Israel, Bibi Netanyahu and I have made a deal that we give Israel $4bn a year, and we made a deal months ago that we're stopping," Trump told Fox News' Fox and Friends. "We've already agreed that by the end of this year we won't be paying Israel."

He also said the idea had come from Netanyahu. "Can I be honest with you, [Netanyahu] brought it up, he said, 'I think it would be appropriate if we do not receive aid', because he understands this is one of their points of contention."

The US Department of State did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

What the money actually is

The aid in question is the long-standing US commitment of about $4 billion a year in military assistance to Israel, agreed in a memorandum of understanding that runs to 2028. It is not a discretionary payment the White House can switch off by announcement: the money is appropriated by Congress, and the programmes it funds include missile-defence and counter-drone work that cannot simply be moved to a commercial sales arrangement overnight.

"The money is appropriated by Congress; Trump can't end this aid unilaterally," one analyst told Al Jazeera, a point that cuts against the certainty of the president's language.

Another analyst was more specific about the timetable. "President Trump will probably not cut off US military aid to Israel by the end of 2026," he said. "While he and Netanyahu agree that military aid should be phased out, there are several ongoing weapons programmes on missile defence and counter-drone warfare that can't easily be switched over to a foreign military sales programme. So I expect military assistance will be phased out during 2027. But not by the end of 2026."

A Congress-shaped problem

The political complication is a bill the House passed in July. The United States-Israel Defense Technology Cooperation Initiative appeared as Section 219 of the fiscal year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act, the annual defence policy bill, and it ties the two militaries more closely together on weapons research, production and technology.

If the Senate does not pass that bill — including the Israel initiative — during the lame-duck session, it becomes less likely to pass in the next session if Democrats take control, according to Debra Shushan, senior resident affiliate at Georgetown's Center for Jewish Civilisation.

"The proposed US-Israel defence integration measures are highly problematic for a number of reasons," Shushan told Al Jazeera. The bill's fate is now entangled with the aid question: one would deepen cooperation, the other would wind down the annual payment.

Why the politics have shifted

US public support for Israel has fallen since the war in Gaza began in 2023, especially among Democrats. A Quinnipiac University poll in June found that 48 percent of voters and 66 percent of Democrats believed the US was too supportive of Israel, up from 16 percent and 20 percent respectively when the question was asked in 2017.

That shift is the background to Trump's remarks. Announcing an end to the payments appeals to voters who think the US is overcommitted, while the practical mechanics give the administration room to describe a phase-out that is already under way rather than a rupture.

What to watch

The next signals are procedural rather than rhetorical. In practice, that means watching appropriations language rather than press appearances: the annual defence bill, the foreign operations spending measure and any reprogramming request would each leave a paper trail if the administration intended to move faster than the memorandum allows. So far there is none, which is why analysts treat the announcement as a statement of intent rather than an executed decision. Congress returns after the election with a crowded calendar, and the aid file will compete with spending deadlines that cannot slip. That calendar, more than any announcement, will decide whether the payments actually stop. Watch whether the administration notifies Congress of any change to the aid programme, whether the Senate takes up the defence bill in the lame-duck session, and whether Israeli officials confirm the account Trump gave of the conversation.

For now, the president's statement is a claim about an agreement, not a published policy change. The timing also matters politically: it landed on the day Americans were voting in the midterms, when arguments about foreign commitments and spending are aimed at domestic audiences as much as at allied capitals. The money is still appropriated, the programmes are still running, and the analysts who follow the file expect any real phase-out to take longer than the president suggested.

The wider region remains volatile, with US strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island this week and peace talks over Ukraine moving in parallel. Israel's own politics are in flux after its election, adding another variable to any deal between the two leaders.