Halloween weekend has produced an unusually close race at the domestic box office: A24's documentary You Can See Everything and Warner Bros and DC's Clayface are each heading for $10 million or more, according to Friday estimates reported by Deadline and relayed by Melody Maker Magazine.

You Can See Everything, Lance Oppenheim's three-hour documentary about Elizabeth Holmes with Nathan Fielder, is counting about $3.2 million on Friday for a third weekend of $10 million to $11 million. Clayface, directed by James Watkins, is eyeing $3.1 million on Friday and a second frame just above $10 million. On those numbers the documentary returns to first place one weekend after the DC film beat it.

Why a Halloween frame behaves differently

Halloween falls on Saturday this year, and the holiday pulls audiences away from cinemas rather than into them. Deadline described the weekend as "an anomaly", a phrase that fits a frame where the two leading titles are separated by a rounding error and the rest of the chart is soft.

The timing also cuts against the usual pattern. Horror films normally lead on Halloween, and Clayface is the closest thing to horror at the top of the chart. Instead, the strongest hold belongs to a documentary whose subject has become a costume: the trade coverage notes nonstop memes and Elizabeth Holmes and Nathan Fielder outfits as part of the film's momentum. Horror films usually lead on Halloween, according to Cosmic Book News, which makes a DC horror title trailing a documentary the specific oddity of this frame.

The cumes behind the race

By Sunday, You Can See Everything is projected to reach about $63.7 million on the high end, while Clayface would sit at about $43.7 million, according to the same estimates. Those numbers matter because they set the comparison for the rest of the run: the documentary is working from a much higher base, while the DC film is trying to avoid the steep second-weekend fall that superhero-adjacent titles often take.

Cosmic Book News put the daily comparison in sharper terms. Clayface did $2,109,875 on Wednesday; Supergirl did $2,133,462 on its first Wednesday. Thursday's estimate for Clayface was $1.9 million against Supergirl's $2.3 million on the same day. Deadline puts Clayface's first week at $33.6 million, and the film has come in under Supergirl on every day of its release so far.

The second-weekend question

Forecasts for Clayface's second weekend split. Box Office Theory has it at $12.4 million, a 48% drop, while Deadline's own Friday projection points to a fall of around 60%, which lands near $9.6 million. The gap between those two numbers is the difference between a normal decline and a fast fade.

Supergirl dropped 76.8% in its second weekend and did $8.6 million. Clayface has not beaten Supergirl on a single day, so a 48% hold would be a genuine improvement in trajectory rather than a repeat. Through Wednesday, Clayface sits at $52.9 million worldwide, and some estimators have it finishing between $130 million and $140 million; the daily numbers so far do not support the top of that range.

The rest of the chart

Below the top two, Laika's Wildwood, released through Fathom at 2,900 locations, is looking at a second Friday of $2.1 million and a second weekend of $6.8 million, a 44% drop, for a running cume of $25.1 million. Black Bear's Wicker, an R-rated comedy opening in its second frame at 2,374 sites, is expected to take around $3.5 million, a 39% hold, for $12.7 million to date.

Paramount and Legendary's Street Fighter continues to fade: a $1 million third Friday at 2,825 sites, a $3.3 million third weekend, down 61%, and a running total of about $53.1 million by Sunday. Those holds describe a market where the holiday weekend is doing very little work for titles that are not already established.

The comparison that shapes the rest of the run

Supergirl, the earlier DC release that Clayface is being measured against, finished its run with $126 million, according to Cosmic Book News. That is the number that turns a second-weekend forecast into a trajectory: a film holding near the 48% projection is tracking well behind that kind of total, and one falling 60% is tracking further behind still.

The daily data is the reason the question stays open. Clayface has not beaten Supergirl on a single day of its release, so the improvement, if it comes, would have to appear in the hold rather than in the opening. Box Office Theory's $12.4 million call assumes exactly that; Deadline's $9.6 million projection assumes the opposite, and the Sunday estimate will show which side of the 48% mark the film lands on.

What to watch next

The next signal is the Sunday estimate, which will show whether the documentary's third frame holds and whether Clayface lands nearer the 48% or the 60% forecast. After that, the post-Halloween weekend is the test: a soft holiday frame can hide weak holds for one week, not two.

Related coverage on this site includes the One Piece chapter 1197 report, the Celebrity Traitors finale and the Edgerunners 2 premiere schedule. All three show the same pattern the box office is testing this weekend: attention is moving to titles with an existing argument, not to whatever happens to be in theatres on a holiday.