More than 5,000 people have died in the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, according to government data, making it the deadliest outbreak of the virus in the country's history and the second largest on record.

The health ministry's latest update, announced on Friday, put confirmed cases above 10,300, with eight of the country's 26 provinces now affected. The case fatality rate stands at 48.6%.

The outbreak began in May and was declared the country's deadliest in August by public health officials, surpassing the 2018-2020 outbreak that killed 2,299 people. This is the 17th Ebola outbreak in DR Congo's history, according to the United Nations.

How it compares

This is the 17th Ebola outbreak recorded in DR Congo, and the second largest in history. The country's previous deadliest outbreak killed 2,299 people between 2018 and 2020, which puts the current toll in perspective: the response has already passed that mark by more than double.

Why this outbreak is harder to contain

The epicentre remains in Ituri province in the north-east, a conflict zone where access is difficult and health workers face security risks. Cases have also been confirmed in Kenya, Nigeria and Uganda, which means the response is no longer purely national.

The strain behind the outbreak is Bundibugyo, for which there is no approved vaccine or treatment. Clinical trials are under way, but they take time, and the absence of a licensed countermeasure changes the arithmetic of containment: without vaccination, the response depends on isolation, contact tracing and community trust.

Delayed detection, conflict and strained health services have all helped the virus spread faster than in previous outbreaks, according to Al Jazeera.

The vaccine gap

There is no licensed vaccine for the Bundibugyo strain, but clinical trials are under way, and testing and treatment continue. The absence of a licensed countermeasure means the response leans on isolation, contact tracing and community trust, all of which are harder to sustain in a conflict zone.

The response

Testing and treatment are under way, and the World Health Organization's Africa office says a "continued scale-up of key control measures, greater access to affected areas, and community outreach" is needed to end the outbreak.

Those three items describe the gap. Access to affected areas is limited by fighting. Community outreach is harder when trust in authorities is low and when Ebola treatment units have been attacked in past outbreaks. Scaling up measures requires money, staff and security, all of which are constrained.

The outbreak is the second largest recorded worldwide, according to the United Nations, and the gap to the largest is narrowing as the toll rises.

The regional risk

The confirmation of cases in Kenya, Nigeria and Uganda matters because it turns a national emergency into a regional one. Cross-border travel, trade and displacement all create routes for the virus, and each country's surveillance capacity differs.

The WHO has not declared a public health emergency of international concern for this outbreak, but the spread across borders will be part of the assessment if the numbers keep rising.

What would change the trajectory

The single biggest variable is access. If health workers can reach Ituri and the surrounding provinces consistently, contact tracing and isolation can slow transmission. If fighting blocks routes, the virus keeps moving ahead of the response. Vaccines would change the arithmetic, but the trials are not yet at the point of providing a licensed product for this strain.

The political dimension

DR Congo's health system has been under strain for years, and the current outbreak is unfolding in a country also dealing with armed conflict in the east. The government's response has been criticised for delays, and international aid has been stretched by other crises.

The 5,000 figure is a milestone, not an endpoint. The case fatality rate of nearly 49% means that for every two confirmed cases, roughly one person dies, which is why the next few weeks will determine whether the outbreak is contained or becomes a wider regional crisis.

The lesson of past outbreaks

DR Congo has beaten Ebola before, including the 2018-2020 outbreak that killed 2,299 people, and the tools that ended it were the same ones being deployed now: tracing, treatment units, community engagement and, eventually, vaccination. The difference this time is the strain and the security environment, which is why the comparison with past successes is encouraging and incomplete at the same time.

What to watch

Three things matter now. First, whether the case count in Ituri stabilises as control measures scale up. Second, whether the clinical trials produce a usable vaccine or treatment for the Bundibugyo strain. Third, whether cross-border transmission accelerates in Kenya, Nigeria and Uganda.

For readers following public health and the region, our coverage of the broccoli seed salmonella recalls shows how foodborne outbreaks are traced across borders, the gripe water recall covers product safety failures that reach households, and the Hawaii flood watch is a reminder of how emergency agencies communicate risk while an event is still developing.

The confirmed facts are the death toll, the case count, the provinces affected and the strain behind the outbreak. Whether the outbreak is contained depends on access, vaccines and time.